[B]OLD AGE With Debbie Weil

Best Of: Plague Expert Nicholas Christakis on Why the Pandemic Will End in 2024

Episode Summary

Debbie re-runs the single most popular of 100+ episodes of [B]OLDER. Two years ago, in 2021, she asked plague expert Nicholas Christakis, a Yale professor and author, the burning question: when will the COVID-19 pandemic end? His answer: 2024. That startled her. Now it makes sense. And of course, it was prescient.

Episode Notes

Today, Debbie re-runs the single most popular of 100+ episodes of [B]OLDER. Exactly two years ago, in the spring of 2021, she asked plague expert Nicholas Christakis, a distinguished Yale professor and author, the burning question: when will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

His answer: 2024. It startled her and burst her bubble of optimism. Vaccines were widely available by then and it seemed like the beginning of the end. Surely he was exaggerating how long it would take for the COVID pandemic to wind down? No, it was only the end of the beginning, he told her.

Today that makes sense. And of course, it was prescient.

Tune into a re-run of one of the most fascinating episodes of [B]OLDER. (Note that Debbie refers to it as The Gap Year Podcast, the name she gave the podcast during the height of the pandemic. It's now the [B]OLDER podcast. Same podcast; different name.)

PHOTO CREDIT: Evan Mann

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SHOW NOTES from the original interview with Nicholas Christakis (May 7, 2021)

Nicholas Christakis, MD, PhD, MPH, and a Sterling Professor at Yale, has been named to TIME magazine’s list of the 100 Most Influential People in the World. His fluency in explaining the intertwined science, epidemiology, psychology, sociology and history of pandemics - and his sense of humor - make this a compelling episode.

You’ll hear why he chose to publish his latest book, Apollo’s Arrow, in the fall of 2020, before we knew the end of the story of COVID-19
How his childhood experiences with illness and death affected his career choices
What the predictable three phases of a pandemic are (in 2021 we were still in the immediate phase)
Why he thinks this pandemic won’t be over until 2024
They also talked about separating the biological vs. the psychological impacts of the pandemic
What herd immunity actually means and whether we’ll get there
And what the public health messaging around the pandemic should be

Debbie asks him point blank: when is the next pandemic? The answer is unnerving – sooner than you might think.

About Nicholas Christakis

Books by Nicholas Christakis

Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live by Nicholas Christakis (Little, Brown Spark 2020)
Blueprint: The Evolutionary Origins of a Good Society by Nicholas Christakis (Little, Brown Spark 2019)
Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives by Nicholas Christakis (Little, Brown Spark 2009)
Death Foretold: Prophecy and Prognosis in Medical Care by Nicholas Christakis (University of Chicago Press, 2001)

Articles and interviews

The New York Times Book Review: The Pandemic’s Future — and Ours (NYT Book Review of Apollo’s Arrow, November 3, 2020)
A year of COVID: Making sense of an ‘alien and unnatural’ time (Yale News, March 4, 2021)
Epidemiologist looks to the past to predict second post-pandemic ‘roaring 20s’ (The Guardian, December 21, 2020)
Denial And Lies Are ‘Almost An Intrinsic Part Of An Epidemic,’ Doctor Says (NPR, October 29, 2020)
The pandemic is as much about society, leaders, and values as it is about a pathogen (Science Mag, November 17, 2020)
The Importance of Being Little: What Young Children Really Need from Grownups by Erika Christakis (Penguin Books 2016)
Remote Learning Isn’t the Only Problem With School (The Atlantic, December 2020)
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus by Larry H. Summers, PhD and David M. Cutler, PhD (October 12, 2020)

Mentioned or useful

The Plague by Albert Camus (1947)
What Is R-naught? Gauging Contagious Infections (Healthline, April 20, 2020)
What is Epidemiology?
What is Sociology?

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